Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered significant shifts in the international balance of power, primarily in Europe. Sweden is no exception: formally neutral during the Cold War, Stockholm chose to abandon a doctrine dating back to 1814 to join NATO. This decision, made jointly with neighboring Finland, was motivated by the resurgence of tensions with Russia, considerably strengthening the alliance’s presence in the Baltic Sea.
Over the past four years, however, the Scandinavian country has had to contend not only with an unstable global context—marked by strained relations between Europe and the Trump administration—but also with its own limitations in the sensitive field of foreign intelligence. While Sweden relies on a robust defense industry, Stockholm suffered from significant delays in intelligence gathering between 2021 and 2022, just as Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine.
The Wake-Up Call: From Ukraine Gaps to the "Swedish MI6"
Despite clear warning signs, Swedish intelligence failed to anticipate the Kremlin’s moves. This came as a surprise given Stockholm's focus on its eastern flank, which had been reinforced since 2018 with updated civil defense guidelines. Aware of the risks posed by its exposed geographical position—especially in coastal areas and on the island of Gotland—the government led by Ulf Kristersson is determined to avoid further missteps.
Consequently, Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard announced the establishment of a new spy agency, modeled after Britain’s MI6.
The new civilian authority will be called UND (Sveriges utrikes underrättelsetjänst—the Swedish Foreign Intelligence Service) and will become fully operational in January 2027. Its primary goal is to identify external threats well in advance.
“Its activities will involve the collection, processing, and analysis of information,” Stenergard stated during a press conference.
Stockholm recognizes the urgent need to align with allied NATO standards. As Stenergard pointed out:
“During the war in Ukraine, it became clear that intelligence advantages and the ability to adapt quickly to different technical systems are now just as crucial as advanced weaponry.”
Restructuring Stockholm's Spy Game: Moving Away from MUST
Historically, Sweden lacked an agency dedicated exclusively to foreign operations. Until now, overseas espionage was handled by the military intelligence service (MUST), while internal threats were countered by the Security and Counterintelligence Agency (SÄPO).
The creation of the UND intelligence agency aims to fill this gap, taking over foreign intelligence responsibilities from the Armed Forces. This new arrangement will facilitate stronger coordination with existing services and the Defense Radio Agency (FRA), which remains responsible for signals intelligence and cybersecurity.
Rising Russian Threats: Cyberattacks and Espionage
The urgency of this intelligence overhaul is underscored by recent security breaches. Civil Protection Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin recently revealed a sophisticated cyberattack against a Swedish thermal power plant, carried out by a hacking group linked to Moscow. While the plant’s operations were not disrupted, Bohlin warned:
“The attack failed because the security systems worked. We are dealing with adversaries who do not hesitate to cause tangible disruption, comparable to the sabotage of our physical infrastructure.”
In addition to cyber warfare, hybrid threats are manifesting on the ground. Swedish prosecutors recently charged a 34-year-old former armed forces member with attempted espionage for Russia. According to prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist, the suspect had access to highly classified information and allegedly traveled to Moscow to meet directly with Russian intelligence representatives.
Featured image: Panoramic view of Gamla Stan, Stockholm’s Old Town. Photo: Brightfreak, Pixabay.
